Monitoring the recovery of tourism following the COVID-19 pandemic
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, SANParks has been actively monitoring the factors affecting international and domestic tourism recovery to inform tourism, marketing and financial planning. This is done through utilising secondary data from various sources, including peer-reviewed academic publications, reports and data from international and local industry associations, expert views, news articles and research conducted by SANParks.
Under much uncertainty in the first few months, the initial report focussed on the impacts of restrictions imposed by governments around the world, along with reduced traveller confidence and intentions to travel. With the intention to assist management with re-evaluating levels of demand and other crisis-induced changes, the report also covered a potential timeline for the recovery of both tourism and the broader economy, and new scenarios for tourism that may emerge. Subsequent reports started tracking the key developments in major source markets, including the emergence of new variants, vaccine acceptance and roll-outs, and the lifting and re-imposing of travel restrictions.
Monitoring movements in international tourist arrivals, key domestic tourism indicators, and traveller sentiments and concerns are essential for planning purposes. Most tourism experts believe international arrivals will only return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024 or later. However, early in 2022, new shocks entered the system due to geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of global and local economic conditions, adding further pressure to the already sensitive demand for international travel. Travel behaviour will continue to evolve in this changing world, prompting new destination management and marketing strategies. Keeping up with these developments can help protected areas that rely heavily on tourism revenues, to plan more realistically for the near and medium-term futures.
Although international tourist visits were drastically decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, international tourist visits (green line is change 2022 vs 2019) are making a slow recovery (Source: StatsSA Tourism and Migration publications).
This article was written by Liandi Slabbert and originally published in the 2021/2022 Research Report.