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Morning all, I found a reasearch paper on the internet
LIONS IN THE KGALAGADI TRANSFRONTIER PARK: MODELLING THE EFFECT OF HUMAN CAUSED MORTALITY
I thought there would be a couple of you that would like to read it. Although technical, gives some good insights. I do not know how to attach the .pdf document to this posting (can someone explain if that can be done), otherwise PM me with your email address and I will send it to you.
Here is an extract from the beginning of the paper:
JAN H VAN VUURENy, ERIC HERRMANNz & PAUL J FUNSTON
Abstract. An age structured demographic matrix model is developed to determine the long term viability of the Southern African Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park lion (Panthera leo) population that is subjected to persecution along the park boundaries. In so doing, maximum sustainable persecution rates are established, so that e±cient conservation measures may be taken, if required, to ensure the continued survival of the species in the park.
Sensitivity analyses indicate that adult female survival ability alone is the most important component of the model in terms of long term population survival. Furthermore, these analyses show that the boundary prides of the park are able to increase their chances of survival and are able to sustain signi¯cantly higher human{caused mortality rates
by inducing birth sex ratio biases in favour of females. The model suggests that the persecution rate experienced by the study population over the period 1998{2001 cannot be sustained in the long{term, provided that there is no immigration of adult females into the population from the park interior. To ensure the survival of existing park boundary prides, adult lionesses should, as far as possible, be a®orded protection from persecution, so that park boundary populations do not merely serve as population sinks for lions from elsewhere, or become extinct.
Key words. Panthera leo, persecution, demography, mathematical model, population sustainability
1. Introduction. Predation on domestic livestock by large predators from conservation areas bordering rangelands is a major cause of con°ict between farmers and conservation organisations (Stander, 1990; Mills, 1991). Large carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo), have decreased substantially in number during the last few decades as a result of increasing pastoralism and con°ict along the boundaries of conservation areas that support natural populations of such predators (Stander, 1993). Lions in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) on the border between South Africa and Botswana (as shown in Figure 2.1(a)), have been subject to persecution by neighbouring farmers in defence of their live-stock herds for several decades (Mills et al., 1978). Most cases of such depredation occur when the lions break through the fencing that separates the KTP from the neighbouring farming areas and kill free{ranging livestock such as cattle and other large domestic animals, particularly in Botswana (Funston, 2001). In retaliation, livestock owners follow up virtually all incidents of depredation, mostly with the intention of destroying the lions before they can return to the safety of the park, from where they may cause future stock losses (Funston, 2001).
During the period 1998{2001, for which detailed records exist, more than a hundred lions have transgressed the boundaries of the park, of which almost a third were shot (Funston, 2001). Numerically, adult lionesses and their young comprise the largest pro-portion of the population that transgress, followed by sub{adult and adult male lions (Funston, 2001). Following a population census conducted in 1976, concern was raised that the population may be negatively a®ected by such persecution (Mills et al., 1978), which led to a second population{estimation survey some twenty years later (Castley etal., 2002). Results from this survey suggested that there had been only a marginal decline in the number of lions in the former Kalahari Gemsbok National Park (South Africa) and adjoining Nossob riverbed section of the park in Botswana. Observations indicate that the population is currently at a population level somewhere between these two estimates, raising questions about the long term sustainability of the lion population residing within the boundary areas of the KTP, if immigration from neighbouring prides from the park interior is disregarded.
The purpose of this paper is to attempt quantitative answers to the following questions:
Q1. To what extent is the KTP boundary lion population able to increase its chances of
survival by inducing birth sex ratio biases under di®erent environmental conditions
(as has been observed to happen (Funston & Herrmann, in prep.))?
Q2. How sensitive are KTP boundary lion demographic equilibria with respect to in-
creases in age{class speci¯c human{caused mortality under di®erent environmental
conditions and subject to birth sex ratio biases?
Q3. What is the maximal age{class speci¯c human{caused mortality rate that the
KTP boundary lion population is able to sustain under di®erent environmental
conditions and subject to birth sex ratio biases?
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Back to KTP in July / August 2013
Travel Report for 2013:
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sorry is not the story I was thinking of 
my last TR 
Bibronsgecko... you too have a wonderful and safe travel to Kgalagadi and happy new year 
