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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:00 pm 
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Junior Virtual Ranger
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Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 4:34 pm
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I note that Scientific Services in its biodiversity statistics lists the number of KNP primate species as five. If they are still counting Samango monkeys as a resident species, that number is tenuous at best.

Johan


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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 4:59 pm 
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Senior Virtual Ranger
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Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 3:44 pm
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Location: Welkom
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gmlsmit wrote:
Readers must please note that the heading is:

Most recent estimates (2010-2011) of the numbers of mammals:

Actual game counts are no longer carried out.

SANParks have obtained an American computer programme which is used by Dr. Sam Ferreira and his staff to calculate the numbers from their office.

This may explain the large range in the numbers e.g.

Burchell's zebra 23 700 - 35 300.
Warthog 3 100 - 5 700.
Giraffe 6 800 - 10 300.
Greater kudu 11 200 - 17 300.
Waterbuck 3 100 - 7 800.
Blue wildebeest 6 400 - 13 100.
Impala 132 300 - 176 400.


I fail to understand why there are such a big difference in the estimated numbers. The estimates of Waterbuck are approximately 251% apart. Why have they put a figure on some smaller animals and estimates on others. Judged on face value, SANParks should ask for their money back.

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 6:08 pm 
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Senior Virtual Ranger
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Maybe Rooies, we should also remember that a computer operates on the KIKU system.

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 6:28 pm 
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Honorary Virtual Ranger
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:hmz: Kick It, Kiss (to make) Up?

Maybe you could embellish a little on that?

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 9:06 pm 
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Virtual Ranger
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When there's a difference of 50 % between high and low estimates , how much credibility is there :hmz:

The figures seem more like wild guesses than estimates with proper scientific base :doh:

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 3:13 am 
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Virtual Ranger
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A computer program that calculates estimates. :hmz: Of course statistical analysis programs are part and parcel of any biologist/ecologist's work on species populations. But you need to input data. Data which has to be gathered in the field by a recognised and appropriate method. So my question would be is the program continuing to use data from the last game count (whenever that was) and using statistical models to account for birth/death rate and other factors since that time?
Gathering population data in the field takes a lot of time and man hours when conducted for a large number of species and is undoubtedly expensive. However good quality up to date data and analysis for species populations is crucial in informing conservation management decisions.

okie wrote:
When there's a difference of 50 % between high and low estimates , how much credibility is there


As a biologist, I would say.....not much.

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