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 Post subject: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Mon May 14, 2012 1:14 pm 
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Hi all fellow forum members :D
Could we possible get some info on the latest census figures for KNP?
As much info as possible and on as many species as possible?


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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 11:56 pm 
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Junior Virtual Ranger
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It would be nice if Scientific Services would post the census figures in their section of SANParks' website. While they are at it, they could post the results of all previous censuses as well. Should not be too difficult, and that way the public would have easy access to this information.

Johan


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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 10:50 am 
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Hi VANPTA and johanrebel;

The KNP census can be found here.

Apologies for the delay. :gflower:

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 7:19 pm 
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Senior Virtual Ranger
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I seem to recall lion numbers in a early 1990's booklet of Kruger being +1500, so actually the numbers have been stable for a while.

I also remember the number of roan was listed as 44...ever since I have wanted to see roan in Kruger...thinking that would be a million times better than lion which are more evenly spread out in Kruger.

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 7:26 pm 
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Honorary Virtual Ranger
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Note that you can also find the census figures in the Annual reports: http://www.sanparks.org/about/annual/
If you want to see trends you have quite a few figures there.

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:24 pm 
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Junior Virtual Ranger
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Thank you very much for the links, Lesego and DuQues.

Weltenman wrote:
I seem to recall lion numbers in a early 1990's booklet of Kruger being +1500, so actually the numbers have been stable for a while.


Information on the most comprehensive KNP lion survey ever in 2005/2006 can be found here:

http://www.krugerpark.co.za/krugerpark- ... 23272.html

The latest 1,620 - 1,750 lion estimate sounds convincing, and would indicate a stable population.

Back when the TB stuff first made headlines, I found myself sitting next to Gus Mills on a flight from Skukuza. He said he did not see much reason to worry about the impact on the lion population, which assessment appears to have been correct.

Johan


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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:49 pm 
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Junior Virtual Ranger
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The 2010-2011 figure for spotted hyaena is 5,340. That's a very high number, I recall reading somewhere that in undisturbed natural environments there is a rough parity between lion and spotted hyaena numbers, albeit with considerable fluctuations over time.

The 2009-2010 Annual Report gives an estimate as 2,000 - 5,340. Exactly the same number at the high end, but a very wide spread, which seems to indicate that they are very uncertain about the true numbers.

What's up here?

Johan


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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:00 pm 
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Junior Virtual Ranger
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I note that Scientific Services in its biodiversity statistics lists the number of KNP primate species as five. If they are still counting Samango monkeys as a resident species, that number is tenuous at best.

Johan


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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 4:59 pm 
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Senior Virtual Ranger
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gmlsmit wrote:
Readers must please note that the heading is:

Most recent estimates (2010-2011) of the numbers of mammals:

Actual game counts are no longer carried out.

SANParks have obtained an American computer programme which is used by Dr. Sam Ferreira and his staff to calculate the numbers from their office.

This may explain the large range in the numbers e.g.

Burchell's zebra 23 700 - 35 300.
Warthog 3 100 - 5 700.
Giraffe 6 800 - 10 300.
Greater kudu 11 200 - 17 300.
Waterbuck 3 100 - 7 800.
Blue wildebeest 6 400 - 13 100.
Impala 132 300 - 176 400.


I fail to understand why there are such a big difference in the estimated numbers. The estimates of Waterbuck are approximately 251% apart. Why have they put a figure on some smaller animals and estimates on others. Judged on face value, SANParks should ask for their money back.

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 Post subject: Re: KNP Census
Unread postPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2012 3:13 am 
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A computer program that calculates estimates. :hmz: Of course statistical analysis programs are part and parcel of any biologist/ecologist's work on species populations. But you need to input data. Data which has to be gathered in the field by a recognised and appropriate method. So my question would be is the program continuing to use data from the last game count (whenever that was) and using statistical models to account for birth/death rate and other factors since that time?
Gathering population data in the field takes a lot of time and man hours when conducted for a large number of species and is undoubtedly expensive. However good quality up to date data and analysis for species populations is crucial in informing conservation management decisions.

okie wrote:
When there's a difference of 50 % between high and low estimates , how much credibility is there


As a biologist, I would say.....not much.

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